OXFORD ECONOMICS How we work with clients
June 2014
A complete decision-support service
Scenario and modeling services
Track …
Deep-dive Databanks On countries, industries, and cities
Event-driven analysis
… Analyze …
Regularlyupdated country and industry reports
… Forecast
Timely economic analysis and forecasts
Country Economic Forecasts Analysis and forecasts on over 200 countries Global Economic Databank Long-term forecasts and trends for over 200 countries Global Economic Model A rigorous tool for forecasting and scenarios Weekly Economic Briefings Analysis of economic events in key markets Global Trade Databank A forecasts for world between 180 countries Trade-by-Product Databank Bilateral exports by product for 33 countries Global Scenarios Service Alternate global macro scenarios
Analysis of multiple scenarios for the global marketplace
Global Scenarios Service Measuring global threats or opportunities and their impacts Uses our model to explore implications of key risks to the world economy
New Global Investment Scenarios Service assesses impact of macro shocks on multiple asset classes
Event-driven analysis and briefings Global Macro Service Event-driven research briefings Weekly macro briefings Data insights At-a-glance chartbooks Regularly updated country reports Global economic databank
Outlooks under scenarios Presentations and webinars Direct access to economists
A complete global industry portfolio Global Industry Forecasts Quarterly analysis and forecasts, with monthly updates for nine industries By-Country Industry Forecasts Quarterly production data, forecasts and charts for each manufacturing sector in 68 countries Global Industry Databank 10-year production forecasts and 30-year historical trends for 100 sectors in 68 countries Global Industry Model An integrated forecasting model for 100 sectors across 68 key countries Commodity Price Forecasts Price trends and forecasts for 26 commodities
Tourism Decision Metrics 10-year forecasts and data for 180 countries-- 40,000 indicators with purpose of trip and spend
Deep coverage of 100 industrial sectors, including:
Aerospace Agricultural machinery Agriculture, forestry and fishing Agro-chemicals Basic metals Castings Chemicals Clothing and leather goods Commercial building Construction Coke Consumer electronics Domestic appliances Electrical machinery and apparatus Electric fittings Electrical engineering Electricity, gas and water Electronic engineering
Extraction Food, beverages and tobacco Furniture Investment goods Iron and steel Machine tools Man-made fibers Mechanical engineering Metal goods and products Motor vehicles, bodies and parts Motors, generators and transformers Non-ferrous metals Non-metallic minerals Nuclear fuel Office equipment Other chemicals Other electrical equipment Other general purpose machinery
Other special purpose machinery Other transport equipment Paints and varnishes Paper, printing and publishing Petroleum Pharmaceuticals Precision, medical and optical equipment Residential building Rubber and plastics Semiconductors Ships, rolling stocks Soaps, detergents and other Telecoms equipment Textiles, leather and clothing Travel and tourism Transport equipment Weapons and ammunition Wood and wood products
A comprehensive and unique database of city forecasts African Cities & Regions Forecasts for 96 locations across Africa Asian Cities & Regions Regularly updated forecasts for 35 locations China Cities & Regions Data and forecasts for more than 300 locations European Cities & Regions Data and forecasts for 2,000 locations Latin American Cities & Regions Data and forecasts for 32 locations North American Cities & Regions Data and forecasts for 32 locations UK Cities & Regions Data and forecasts for over 450 Local Authority Districts
Oxford can support a wide range of business analysis Our team of economists and specialists deploy a rich array of quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Thanks to our multi-disciplinary culture and wide access to experts, executives and policy-makers we can dig deep into business, economic, industry, financial, labour, regulatory, and social issues confronting international organisations. Scenario planning
Stress testing
Assess the impact of potential economic, political or financial shocks on your revenue, costs and market exposure
Conduct stress testing and reverse stress testing. Financial firms can use the model to run CCAR scenarios to stress test balance sheets
Market sizing Help identify key markets around the world and size the opportunity for your products and services
OXFORD ECONOMICS
Impact analysis Gauge how a change to a government policy or emerging macro development will affect your business
Forecasting
Thought leadership
Enable you to correlate economic drivers to your business so that you can forecast sales performance
Drawing on an array of research methods, we create must-have decision-support
Economic impact analysis We conduct economic impact studies that assess the economic contribution of a sector, company or investment. We quantify the impact via four channels:
Direct impacts: jobs, output and fiscal contributions. Indirect impacts: employment and output via purchases from a company’s supply chain.
Induced impacts: jobs and output from spending of direct and indirect employees. Catalytic impacts: the benefits to performance in other sectors.
Global forecasting and market sizing Our forecasting models enable us to tailor analysis to specific customer needs. We can forecast product demand, industrial trends, economic conditions and business performance on a global, national or city basis.
Scenarios and stress testing In these volatile times, unexpected shocks can destroy profits, disrupt supply chains and upend business models. That is why executives are building scenario analysis into their strategic thinking. Our global models provide the ideal framework to explore alternative scenarios such as a China banking crisis, Eurozone deflation, and increased capital flow from emerging markets. Stress scenarios for a multinational insurance firm Oxford runs CCAR stress tests following the Fed’s November release of stress scenarios. Each quarter, scenarios are run through the Global Economic Model. Oxford produces a detailed scenario report and data to the client’s specification showing the impacts on world economies.
Thought Leadership Quantitative analysis Forecasting, modeling, benchmarking and scenario analysis. Management research Executive surveys, interviews, expert panels and advisory boards. Insightful publications Engaging executives through white papers, newsletters and articles. Meetings and presentations Stimulating ideas through peer group interchange and presentations. Web publishing and social media Research hubs, infographics, interactive forums, analytical tools and microsites.
Monitoring key developments Oxford worked together with a US conglomerate to develop a monthly economic indicators dashboard. This report gives thorough economic and industry analysis on all regions and key countries for their core business groups.
Global summary Positives PMIs mostly firm in developed world (1) US tapering offset by policy ease in Eurozone, Japan Strengthening business investment a likely theme for the new year in the US and Germany German Bundesbank sees strengthening recovery Patch of soft US data now in the past, seen as a blip
Negatives
Veering between risk off/risk on trade for Emergers Financial stresses re-emerging in China, growth easing, PMI in contraction zone Even sturdy Emergers such as Chile being affected by capital outflows Likely sanctions, relative isolation, to hit Russian growth
Key Indicators
Global 1: Purchasing Manager's Index Index score (above 50 = expansion) 58 *Indicate trend direction from 3 month MA 56 53.3 53.2 54 52 48.5 * 50 48 46 44 China Eurozone Global
Global 3: World export growth
55.5 53.2
Japan
USA
Source : Markit
The company uses this information for near-term internal planning as well as to support quarterly sales calls and meetings with current and potential investors.
Global GDP: 2013: +2.2% 2014: +2.8%
Global IP: 2013: +1.7% 2014: +3.9%
Source : Oxford Economics
Global PMIs on broad uptrend 2005 = 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 West Texas Intermediate (LHS) 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Metals prices (RHS)
2007
2008
Source : Wall Street Journal/IMF/Oxford Economics
Commodity prices flat as can be 1
Strategy & Corporate Development
F'cast
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
World trade susceptible to setbacks going into 2014
Global 2: Energy and metal prices US$ / barrel 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006
% change year-on-year 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2007 2008 2009
Global 4: Global GDP growth % change year-on-year 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3
2.7
2.0
1.8
1.6
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
2.4
13Q3
13Q4
Source : Oxford Economics
Global growth on the up © 2014 3M. All Rights Reserved.
Leading sales indicators for an alcoholic beverages company Developing leading indicators Oxford identified the top five indicators that most closely predict future sales conditions for a European beverages company. A custom model applies weights to each factor, producing a 6-month view so that the company can adjust their strategy.
Hypertherm’s sales forecasting model Correlating sales to economic trends For Hypertherm, a US precision tools manufacturer, Oxford produces sales forecasts for 9 product lines across 5 regions. These forecasts and circulated to their business units to inform sales and production planning. An excel-based model using Oxford’s macro and industry forecasts generates product sales projections for Hypertherm’s products. The model was created by correlating Hypertherm’s sales with key economic drivers. The tool allows input of alternative assumptions and comparison with the central forecast. A detailed forecast report outlines the macro and sectoral background and traces out the implications for the forecast of Hypertherm’s products and the risks they face.
Economic impact analysis for Rolls Royce
Measuring total business impact We worked with Rolls Royce to provide evidence showing the value of their business to the UK government. To measure the full value that Rolls Royce generates, we analyzed four types of impacts:
Direct -- employment, tax revenue and other direct economic activity.
Indirect -- employment and economic activity supported via the supply chain.
Induced -- economic activity by the expenditure of those employed.
Catalytic -- improved productivity and performance in other parts the economy.
Sales and production for light vehicles In conjunction with our partner, LMC Automotive, we provide forecasts for global sales of light vehicles (up to 6 tons). Along with our baseline forecast, we also predict production and sales levels under four timely and pertinent alternative economic scenarios, such as a China shadow banking crisis, or a slow down in emerging markets. The tool provides seven-year light vehicle production forecasts by manufacturer, make, model, platform and assembly.
Indexing labor supply and demand for Hays
Global skills index We developed an index for Hays, a recruitment firm, to show the efficiency of skilled labor around the world. The index identifies imbalances between the supply and demand of skilled labor. For each market, we ranked seven key categories and combined them into a country scorecard:
Education flexibility Labor market participation Labor market flexibility Talent mismatch Overall wage pressure Wage pressure in high-skill industries Wage pressure in high-skill occupations
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An index of key metrics for the Worldwide Web Foundation Web impact index Oxford Economics helped to develop a pioneering Web Index for Tim Berners-Lee’s Worldwide Web Foundation. This is an interactive tool for measuring the Web’s growth, utility, and impact on people and nations. Oxford Economics relied on its global network of economists and analysts to provide input into the 80 country models behind the ranking tool.
Strategic workforce planning for a consumer goods firm
Talent gap analysis In these times of business transformation and demographic change, companies need to assess the impact of their long-term strategies on talent needs. To help a well-known consumer goods firm analyze trends in Europe, Oxford Economics compared internal talent segmentation and forecasted trends against expected shifts in the supply and demographics of talent in 8 key countries.
