Lee, Collier & Charlotte Counties
MARKET TRENDS 3rd Quarter - 2013
POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHICS, RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS & COMMUNITY STATISTICS
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CONTENTS
Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................4 Socioeconomic Overview Population ..........................................................................................................................................5 Airport Traffic.....................................................................................................................................8 Age Distribution .................................................................................................................................10 School Enrollments.............................................................................................................................12 FGCU Enrollment...............................................................................................................................13 Household Income..............................................................................................................................14 Employment........................................................................................................................................18 Migration.............................................................................................................................................20 Housing Overview Collier County Permits.......................................................................................................................22 Lee County Permits.............................................................................................................................25 Charlotte County Permits....................................................................................................................33 Total Combined Permits.....................................................................................................................34 Land Solutions Total Team Approach.................................................................................................35 MLS Sales Trends...............................................................................................................................37 Vacant Developed Detached Lot Inventory (Subdivision).................................................................41 Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres Lot Sales Trends.................................................................................42 Foreclosure Data...............................................................................................................................44 Construction Material Index...............................................................................................................47 Road, Infrastructure & Public Works Projects....................................................................................48 General Limiting Conditions..............................................................................................................51 Market Research & Reporting............................................................................................................52 About Lee, Collier and Charlotte Counties ........................................................................................53
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY New home end-user demand remained robust in the third quarter of 2013, which is usually the slow period in terms of new home orders relative to the rest of the year. This is reminiscent of what the industry experienced in the third quarters of 2004 and 2005, when new home orders were also quite robust. Could this recent third quarter success be a prelude to what followed the 2004/2005 market exuberance? Opinions vary widely, but as a brokerage firm largely focused on homebuilder land/lot sales, we have seen a pullback. Residential land sales and builder interest for future acquisitions has waned, causing land prices to plateau. After a bevy of land acquisition activity by homebuilders in 2012 and early 2013, homebuilders started tapping the breaks on such acquisitions this past April. The timing coincided with the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s discussions to reduce their $85 billion in monthly purchases of treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities, which drove interest rates higher and builder stocks lower. Although most other local homebuilding industry vendors have yet to experience a slowdown and will likely not do so for another 18-24 months, we think it is wise to plan for a slowdown. To what degree a slowdown occurs is anyone’s guess as we are still in unchartered waters relative to historical economic market conditions. However, the degree to which mortgage rates rise will likely have a closely related negative correlation on the severity of the homebuilding industry slowdown. Our forecast is that we have a modest slowdown in the homebuilding industry with low home price appreciation and modest end-user demand for a 2-3 year period. Regardless, the slowdown will be nothing like what we experienced during the Great Recession of the recent past. The recent void created in the demand for developable land due to the pullback in residential land sales has been replaced with increased interest in commercially zoned land. This interest has primarily been in areas were housing development has been strongest and existing space is in short supply. Other year-over-year third quarter observations seen in Southwest Florida are continued increases in job growth, taxable consumer sales, tourism tax revenues, and median home prices. These observations are all indicative of a healthy housing market, which has proven to be a vital element for one’s economic mobility.
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SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Population Southwest Florida has been one of fastest-growing areas in the nation for many years, prior to the real estate collapse in 2007. Growth was attributed to in-migration, mostly from Midwestern and Northeastern states; however, foreign migration and intrastate migration were also significant factors for growth. The real estate collapse and the global economic capitulation that followed, stunted growth in Southwest Florida from 2007-2009. Unstable job markets, economic uncertainty and declining personal wealth trapped people in their residences and decreased their confidence to make a move to Florida. Many of these concerns began to unwind starting in late 2010 and are still continuing today. This has caused a re-emergence in population growth in Southwest Florida and we now believe the population growth rate is nearing pre-recession levels.
Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Populations
645,293 618,754
631,602
650,000 625,000
610,984
600,000
582,678
575,000 550,000 525,000
522,431
500,000 478,889
475,000 450,000
443,903
425,000 400,000
321,520 296,021
312,621
327,519
332,437
375,000 350,000 325,000
316,641
300,000 275,000
275,490 254,080
250,000 225,000 159,978
142,229 2000
2001
150,123
157,755
157,099
160,467
200,000 159,459 162,449 175,000 150,000 125,000
2002
Source: US Census / BEBR
2003
2004
2005
Collier
2006
2007
Lee
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Charlotte
U.S. Census Population Estimates were updated March 14, 2013 and can be seen in the following graph. The data shows estimates as of July each year through 2012. It shows Southwest Florida is once again showing significant gains in population with a 1.80% gain (or 20,194 people) in 2012 over 2011 for Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined. If you divide the population gain (20,194) by the average household size in Southwest Florida (2.3) we get 8,780. 8,780 is the number of new residential units needed to support that level of population growth (20,194) in a normal housing market. Currently, we are projected to add around 6,500 new residential units in Southwest Florida in 2013.
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The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) released their revised 30-year population projections March 29, 2013 which can be seen below for each county. Lee County’s population is expected to grow 67.7 % from 2012 to 2040, which is the highest percentage gain for any Florida County with at least 300,000 residents currently.
Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Population Projections 1,070,200
1,100,000 1,050,000 1,008,300
1,000,000 950,000
937,000
900,000 858,500
850,000 800,000
773,500
750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000
682,800 618,754
550,000
497,700
500,000 450,000
447,000
400,000 350,000 300,000
321,520
346,800
383,200
250,000 200,000 150,000
159,978 2010
Source: BEBR
167,400 2015
176,100 2020
Charlotte
472,700
417,200
183,900 2025
Collier
190,500 2030
196,500 2035
202,000
2040
Lee
Collier County’s population is expected to grow 50.9 % from 2012 to 2040, which is the fourth highest percentage gain for any Florida County with at least 300,000 residents currently. As of March 2013, there are 17 counties in Florida with at least 300,000 residents. Using the BEBR’s population projections, Southwest Florida is expected to add 192,631 people by 2020 from 2012 population levels. This equates to 24,079 people per year over the next eight years. If you divide that yearly projected population gain (24,079) by the average household size in Southwest Florida (2.3) we get 10,469. 10,469 would be the number of new residential units needed each year until 2020 to support the BEBR’s population projection levels.
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Population, cont. Population growth from migration can be seen in the following chart broken out into foreign and domestic migration into Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined. Total migration turned slightly negative in 2009, but has since rebounded nicely. This data comes from the U.S. Census and was released March 14, 2013.
Collier, Lee & Charlotte Total Migration
40000 35000
34,239
33,220
30000 25000
24,295
25,606
25,490 23,195
20000
17,562 16,791
15000
10,561
10000 5000 0
5,250
4,783
4,668
4,971 4,208
4,289
3,992
4,423
4,022
1,296
3,942
3,951
522
2,231 4,779 1,068
-4,695
-5000 -10000 2000 Source: US Census
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Foreign
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Domestic
Future growth in Southwest Florida will be due largely to record numbers of Baby Boomers retiring and migrating south. Southwest Florida has and will continue to appeal greatly to affluent Baby Boomers who are looking for sun, beaches, boating, and championship golf. Foreign migration is also expected to grow to record levels in Southwest Florida over the coming years, which will be aided by an increase in international flights at Southwest Florida International Airport.
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Airport Traffic Growth in air traffic usually portends population growth. After declines in annual passenger traffic in 2008 and 2009 at Southwest Florida International Airport, 2010 and 2011 showed respectable increases in air traffic. 2012; however, once again went negative posting a 2.48% drop in traffic over 2011 figures. Traffic through the first three quarters of 2013 has once again rebounded; showing a 6.47% increase in passenger traffic. 2013 passenger traffic is on pace for the second busiest year ever, only trailing 2007 travel figures. Also, the month of March this year recorded the highest monthly passenger traffic for any month in the airport’s history.
-8.0%
1,500,000
-10.0%
Source: Lee County Port Authority
Total Passengers
Annual Percentage Change
2,000,000
2013
-6.0%
2012
2,500,000
2011
-4.0%
2010
3,000,000
2009
-2.0%
2008
0.0%
3,500,000
2007
4,000,000
2006
2.0%
2005
4,500,000
2004
4.0%
2003
5,000,000
2002
6.0%
2001
5,500,000
2000
8.0%
1999
6,000,000
1998
10.0%
1997
6,500,000
1996
12.0%
1995
14.0%
7,000,000
1994
7,500,000
1993
16.0%
1992
8,000,000
1991
18.0%
1990
8,500,000
1989
Passengers
SW Florida International Airport Traffic
Annual Percentage Change
LSI believes the 2012 yearly decline was a result of fundamental changes that took place in the airline industry, which limited service and priced people out of air travel. Southwest Florida International Airport is not conducive for an airline hub due to its peripheral location amongst national and international travel destinations. With airlines acutely refining their logistical proficiency to compete and stay profitable, service to Southwest Florida International Airport suffered.
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Airport Traffic, cont. Charlotte County Airport has been able to attract and maintain regional carriers over the past five years, which has contributed to the growth of air traffic to Charlotte County. Currently two carriers, Direct Air and Allegiant, service U.S. cities in the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast. Through the first three quarters of 2013 the airport has experienced a 34.19% increase over 2012 figures. Passenger traffic in 2013 is on pace to be the busiest year ever for the airport. Traffic is expected to further increase in the near future due to many additional flights being added at the airport. Growth at Charlotte County Airport will be a major economic driver in the future, which is likely to present opportunities for homebuilders, developers and the like. Charlotte County Airport passenger traffic figures can be seen in the following graph. Charlotte County Airport Traffic
90.0%
300,000
80.0%
275,000
70.0%
250,000
60.0%
Passengers
225,000
50.0%
228,364
200,000 175,000
30.0%
150,000
20.0%
291,626
125,000
10.0%
219,357
100,000
0.0%
182,423
75,000 50,000
109,921
-10.0%
129,025
-20.0%
Total Passengers
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-30.0%
2008
25,000 -
40.0%
Annual Percentage Change
325,000
-40.0%
Annual % Change
Source: Charlotte County Airport Authority
The other two major airports on Florida’s Gulf Coast, Sarasota/Bradenton Airport and Tampa International Airport, saw mixed figures through the first three quarters of 2013. Sarasota/Bradenton Airport saw a 9.79% decrease in passenger traffic, while Tampa International Airport saw a 0.75% increase.
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Age Distribution
Due to a large number of Baby Boomers coupled with a declining birth rate, the U.S. population is getting older. Data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS) for 2012 supports this notion in Southwest Florida. The table below shows the population changes by age groupings.
0-19 20-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total Change 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total
Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Population by Age ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS % of 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 216,725 21.8% 221,550 230,358 230,673 228,204 230,837 231,331 166,620 16.7% 182,699 180,314 178,585 160,759 163,319 170,620 122,122 12.3% 129,543 131,583 124,773 118,262 121,159 116,067 123,570 12.4% 128,142 132,488 134,082 138,417 143,543 142,004 123,676 12.4% 126,574 127,627 125,930 143,481 157,802 161,130 124,838 12.5% 119,811 119,342 122,369 136,768 157,506 162,058 94,558 9.5% 102,160 105,124 108,392 98,085 90,488 97,778 24,218 2.4% 29,952 32,381 33,650 38,421 37,959 38,987 996,327 100.0% 1,040,431 1,059,217 1,058,454 1,062,397 1,102,613 1,119,975
4,825 16,079 7,421 4,572 2,898 -5,027 7,602 5,734 44,104
8,808 (2,385) 2,040 4,346 1,053 (469) 2,964 2,429 18,786
315 (1,729) (6,810) 1,594 (1,697) 3,027 3,268 1,269 (763)
(2,469) (17,826) (6,511) 4,335 17,551 14,399 (10,307) 4,771 3,943
2,633 2,560 2,897 5,126 14,321 20,738 (7,597) (462) 40,216
1,117 6,692 (4,061) (1,814) 3,622 6,049 2,009 6,109 19,723
ACS 2012 232,057 170,637 120,292 143,718 159,991 172,584 98,990 41,900 1,140,169
% of Total 20.4% 15.0% 10.6% 12.6% 14.0% 15.1% 8.7% 3.7% 100% % 726 0.31% 17 0.01% 4,225 3.64% 1,714 1.21% (1,139) -0.71% 10,526 6.50% 1,212 1.24% 2,913 7.47% 20,194 1.80%
Source: US Census American Community Survey 2005-2012
Overall Change 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total
2005 - 2012 15,332 7.07% 4,017 2.41% (1,830) -1.50% 20,148 16.30% 36,315 29.36% 47,746 38.25% 4,432 4.69% 17,682 73.01% 143,842 14.44%
According to the U.S. Census, 41.5% of the combined population of Collier, Lee, and Charlotte is 55 or older.
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Age Distribution (continued) Further BEBR projections of people 55 and older indicate an increase of 74.8% by 2040 over 2010 Census data for Collier, Lee and Charlotte Counties combined. The following graph shows BEBR’s projections separated into three age ranges for people 55 and older.
Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Population Projections 55 and Older 400,000 375,000 350,000 325,000 300,000 275,000 250,000 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 2010 Source: BEBR
2015
2020
2025
55-64
2030
65-79
2035
2040
80+
The aging of the population almost certainly ensures an increase in housing demand from older, more affluent empty nesters and retirees in Southwest Florida moving forward.
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School Enrollments Southwest Florida school enrollments overall declined in the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 school years. As a result of the 2004-2007 run-up in real estate prices, many young families opted for less expensive areas to raise their families. Families continued to exit the market when unemployment began to spike in 2008 due to the economic downturn. Enrollment figures, however, from the past four school years showed a reversing trend to positive growth in Lee and Collier Counties, while Charlotte County enrollment continued to decline. The decline in Charlotte County enrollment plateaued this most recent year (2012-2013) and is expected to reverse course next year. Enrollment growth is indicative of an improving job market and lower housing prices in Southwest Florida. Enrollment trends are depicted in the following graphs. Figures for the 2013-2014 school year are expected to be released in November 2013. Collier School Enrollment 44,500 44,000 43,500 43,000 42,500 42,000 41,500 41,000 40,500 40,000 39,500 2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Collier School Enrollment
Source: Florida Dept. of Education
Lee School Enrollment 88,000 86,000 84,000 82,000 80,000 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 66,000 2003-04
2004-05
Source: Florida Dept. of Education
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2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Lee School Enrollment
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School Enrollments (continued) Charlotte School Enrollment 18,500 18,250 18,000 17,750 17,500 17,250 17,000 16,750 16,500 16,250 2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
Source: Florida Dept. of Education
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Charlotte School Enrollment
Florida Gulf Coast University
Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) is quickly becoming a large regional university and economic driver for the Southwest Florida area. The university is located in southern Lee County on Ben Hill Griffin Parkway. The university has added an average of 895 students per year over the past nine years. University officials project enrollment to be near 20,000 by the 2017-2018 school year. Historical enrollment figures for FGCU can be seen below. Growth of FGCU contributes to the overall population growth of Southwest Florida and is a big economic driver for the area. A 2011 study by a FGCU professor found the university’s impact on the Southwest Florida economy for the 2009-10 academic year was approximately $345 million in overall expenditures and $144 million in labor income with its 3,119 jobs. Florida Gulf Coast University Enrollment 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
99'-00' 00'-01' 01'-02' 02'-03' 03'-04' 04'-05' 05'-06' 06'-07' 07'-08' 08'-09' 09'-10' 10'-11' 11'-12' 12'-13' 13'-14'
Source: FGCU
Undergraduate
Graduate
Non-degree
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Household Income The following graphs indicate median and mean income levels for each county according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent American Community Survey (2012). Collier, Lee & Charlotte Median Household Incomes $62,000 $61,165
$60,000 $58,000
$57,653
$56,000
$55,888
$54,126 $52,988
$52,730
$52,000
$52,179 $50,747
$50,699
$50,564
$50,000
$48,553 $46,707
$46,053
$46,278
$46,404
$45,266
$45,353 $44,166
$54,000
$45,247
$48,000 $46,000 $44,000
$43,936
$42,000
$42,031 $41,190
$40,362
$40,000
$39,091
$38,000 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Collier
Source: US Census ACS
Lee
2010
2011
2012
Charlotte
Collier, Lee & Charlotte Mean Household Incomes $100,000 $97,881
$95,000
$92,436
$88,799 $86,372
$85,131
$85,326
$90,000 $85,000
$82,016
$80,000
$79,629
$75,000 $71,415
$70,761
$70,000
$67,383
$65,632
$63,697
$64,509 $61,562
$60,234 $56,958
$64,904
$63,141
$56,711
$60,000 $55,576
$53,047
$52,398
$65,000
$55,000
$52,405
$50,000 2005
2006
Source: US Census ACS
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2007
2008
2009
Collier
Lee
2010
2011
Charlotte
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2012
Household Income The following chart indicates the percentage of households in each county making $50,000, $75,000, and $100,000 or more. These segments are particularly important to new housing demand because they are the segments that can typically afford new homes.
Collier Households making 53.7% $50,000 or more Households making 36.6% $75,000 or more Households making 23.5% $100,000 or more Source: US Census ACS
Lee 46.3%
Charlotte 45.1%
Florida 45.6%
U.S. 51.5%
26.4%
22.8%
27.7%
33.5%
16.0%
10.7%
17.1%
21.6%
The following affordability chart estimates the required household income needed to purchase a home with a 10% down payment.
Home Price $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000
$220,000 $240,000 $260,000 $280,000 $300,000 $320,000 $340,000 $360,000 $380,000 $400,000 $420,000 $440,000 $460,000 $480,000
Down Payment
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,000 $46,000 $48,000
1
Mortgage
$90,000 $108,000 $126,000 $144,000 $162,000 $180,000 $198,000 $216,000 $234,000 $252,000 $270,000 $288,000 $306,000 $324,000 $342,000 $360,000 $378,000 $396,000 $414,000 $432,000
Mortgage Property 2 Rate Tax
4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
$600 $870 $1,140 $1,410 $1,680 $1,950 $2,220 $2,490 $2,760 $3,030 $3,300 $3,570 $3,840 $4,110 $4,380 $4,650 $4,920 $5,190 $5,460 $5,730
Annual Monthly Property 4 3 Payment Insurance
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200 $2,400 $2,600 $2,800 $3,000 $3,200 $3,400 $3,600 $3,800 $4,000 $4,200 $4,400 $4,600 $4,800
$589.35 $719.72 $850.09 $980.46 $1,110.83 $1,241.20 $1,371.57 $1,501.94 $1,632.31 $1,762.68 $1,893.05 $2,023.42 $2,153.79 $2,284.16 $2,414.53 $2,544.90 $2,675.27 $2,805.64 $2,936.01 $3,066.38
Annual Mortgage Payment
$7,072.20 $8,636.64 $10,201.08 $11,765.52 $13,329.96 $14,894.40 $16,458.84 $18,023.28 $19,587.72 $21,152.16 $22,716.60 $24,281.04 $25,845.48 $27,409.92 $28,974.37 $30,538.81 $32,103.25 $33,667.69 $35,232.13 $36,796.57
Required Household 5 Income
$23,574 $28,789 $34,004 $39,218 $44,433 $49,648 $54,863 $60,078 $65,292 $70,507 $75,722 $80,937 $86,152 $91,366 $96,581 $101,796 $107,011 $112,226 $117,440 $122,655
1
- Assuming Down Payment of 10% of Home Price - Estimated at 1.5% of 90% of home value less $50k homestead deduction 3 - Estimated at 1% of Home Price 4 - Includes all costs, made into monthly payments 5 - Based on 30% rule of thumb 2
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Household Income (continued)
The following chart highlights changes in purchasing power, relative to mortgage rates, for residents earning the median wage in each county.
Home 1 Price
$242,981 $232,692 $222,952 $213,741 $205,036 $196,815 Home 1 Price
$203,251 $194,954 $187,075 $179,602 $172,521 $165,815 Home 1 Price
$200,770 $192,475 $184,606 $177,149 $170,089 $163,410
90% Mortgage Property 2 Mortgage Rate Tax
$218,683 $209,423 $200,657 $192,367 $184,532 $177,133
3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00%
$2,024 $1,913 $1,808 $1,708 $1,614 $1,526
90% Mortgage Property 2 Mortgage Rate Tax
$182,926 $175,458 $168,368 $161,642 $155,268 $149,233
3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00%
$1,994 $1,882 $1,776 $1,675 $1,579 $1,489
90% Mortgage Property 2 Mortgage Rate Tax
$180,693 $173,227 $166,145 $159,434 $153,080 $147,069
3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00%
$1,830 $1,725 $1,626 $1,532 $1,443 $1,359
Annual Monthly Property 4 3 Payment Insurance
$2,430 $2,327 $2,230 $2,137 $2,050 $1,968
$1,353.15 $1,353.15 $1,353.15 $1,353.15 $1,353.15 $1,353.15
Annual Monthly Property 4 3 Payment Insurance
$2,033 $1,950 $1,871 $1,796 $1,725 $1,658
$1,156.95 $1,156.95 $1,156.95 $1,156.95 $1,156.95 $1,156.95
Annual Monthly Property 4 Payment 3 Insurance
$2,008 $1,925 $1,846 $1,771 $1,701 $1,634
$1,131.17 $1,131.18 $1,131.17 $1,131.17 $1,131.18 $1,131.17
1
Annual Mortgage Payment
Collier Median Income
$16,237.80 $16,237.80 $16,237.80 $16,237.80 $16,237.80 $16,237.80
$54,126 $54,126 $54,126 $54,126 $54,126 $54,126
Annual Lee Median Mortgage Income Payment
$13,883.40 $13,883.40 $13,883.40 $13,883.40 $13,883.40 $13,883.40
$46,278 $46,278 $46,278 $46,278 $46,278 $46,278
Annual Mortgage Payment
Charlotte Median Income
$13,574.10 $13,574.10 $13,574.10 $13,574.10 $13,574.10 $13,574.10
$45,247 $45,247 $45,247 $45,247 $45,247 $45,247
- Assuming Down Payment of 10% of Home Price - Estimated at 1.2% in Collier, 1.5% in Lee, & 1.4% in Charlotte of 90% of home value less $50k homestead deduction 3 - Estimated at 1% of Home Price 4 - Includes all costs, made into monthly payments 5 - Based on 30% rule of thumb 2
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Household Income (continued) Collier County Home Affordability for Median Income Earner ($54,126) $250,000 $242,981 $240,000 $232,692 $230,000 $222,952 $220,000 $213,741 $210,000
$205,036
$200,000
$196,815
$190,000
$180,000 3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
Mortgage Rate
Lee County Home Affordability for Median Income Earner ($46,278) $210,000 $203,251 $200,000 $194,954 $190,000
$187,075 $179,602
$180,000
$172,521 $170,000
$165,815
$160,000
$150,000 3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
Mortgage Rate
Charlotte County Home Affordability for Median Income Earner ($45,247)
$210,000
$200,000
$200,770 $192,475 $190,000 $184,606 $180,000
$177,149 $170,089
$170,000
$163,410 $160,000
$150,000 3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
Mortgage Rate
| 17 |
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Collier County Employment The graphs in this following section depict the unemployment conditions and history at the county, state and national levels. Collier County shows strong seasonality in its unemployment rate, especially prior to the most recent real estate boom. As of August 2013, Collier’s unemployment stood at 7.4%, down from 9.8% in August 2012. Collier County Unemployment 180,000
14.0%
170,000
13.0%
160,000
12.0%
150,000
11.0%
140,000
10.0%
130,000
9.0%
120,000
7.4%
110,000
8.0% 7.0% 6.0%
90,000
5.0%
80,000
4.0%
70,000
3.0%
60,000
2.0%
50,000
1.0% Aug-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13
100,000
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployed
Employed
Unemployment Rate
The following chart indicates the largest employers within Collier County. Collier County Rank Company 1 Naples Community Hospital 2 Ritz Carlton Naples 3 Garquilo Inc 4 Arthrex Inc 5 Collier Sheriffs Office 6 Home Team Inspection 7 Publix Super Markets 8 Marriott 9 Naples Grande Beach Resort 10 Downing Frye Realty
Industry Healthcare Hotel Agriculture Manufacturing Government Real Estate Grocery Hotel Hotel Real Estate
Source: Collier County Economic Development Office
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Employees 4,000 1,110 1,110 1,056 1,029 900 800 700 700 550
Lee County Employment
Lee County Unemployment 14.0%
320,000
13.0%
300,000
12.0%
280,000
11.0%
260,000
10.0%
240,000
9.0%
220,000
8.0%
7.2%
200,000
7.0%
180,000
6.0%
160,000
5.0%
140,000
4.0%
120,000
3.0%
100,000
2.0%
80,000
1.0% Aug-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13
As of August 2013, Lee County was experiencing an unemployment rate of 7.2%; down from 9.5% in August 2012. Lee County has less seasonal irregularity than Collier County and may be more relevant to the overall job market in Southwest Florida, which affects the primary housing demand in the area. The secondary housing demand, less affected by the local job market, is made up of retirees and second home buyers from out of the area. The Hertz corporate headquarters move to south Lee County later this year and will likely give a nice boost to Lee and Collier’s employment figures.
340,000
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployed
Employed
Lee County Rank Company 1 Lee Memorial Health 2 Lee County Schools 3 Publix Supermarket 4 Lee County Administration 5 Walmart 6 Chicos FAS 7 Lee Sheriffs Office 8 US Postal Service 9 Florida Gulf Coast University 10 City of Cape Coral
The following chart indicates the largest employers within Lee County.
Charlotte County Employment
As of August 2013, Charlotte County was experiencing an unemployment rate of 7.1%; down from 9.2% in August 2012.
Unemployment Rate
Industry Healthcare Education Grocer Government Retail Retail / HQ Government Postal Svc Education Government
Employees 10,425 10,333 4,404 2,358 1,967 1,703 1,535 1,477 1,323 1,197
Source: Lee County Economic Development Office
Charlotte County Unemployment 75,000
14.0%
72,500
13.0%
70,000
12.0%
67,500
11.0%
65,000
10.0%
62,500
9.0%
60,000
8.0%
57,500
7.1%
55,000
7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
50,000
4.0%
47,500
3.0%
45,000
2.0%
42,500
1.0% Aug-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13
52,500
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployed
Employed
Unemployment Rate
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Charlotte County Employment (continued)
The following chart indicates the largest employers within Charlotte County.
Charlotte County Rank Company 1 Walmart 2 St. Joseph Preferred Healthcare 3 Charlotte County Schools 4 Charlotte County 5 Fawcett Memorial Hospital 6 Publix Super Market 7 Port Charlotte HMA 8 Punta Gorda HMA 9 Charlotte County Sheriff 10 Home Depot
Industry Retail Healthcare
Employees 1,500 1,400
Education Government Healthcare Grocery Healthcare Healthcare Government Retail
1,176 1,027 840 780 700 680 600 450
Source: Charlotte County Economic Development Office
Florida and National Employment The Southwest Florida economy is heavily tied to the residential construction and service industries. There have been noticeable improvements in those industries over the past year and further improvements will do a great deal to increase job growth in Southwest Florida. State and national unemployment figures sit at 7.0% and 7.3% respectively for August 2013. These rates are expected to continue to fall gradually through 2014.
Migration The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides annual migration data based on the addresses from annual tax returns received and compared year over year. IRS migration data captures roughly 70% of all United States residents; but excludes those lower income residents who do not need to file a return. While it does not capture all migration, it does represent data regarding migrants who have the ability to purchase a home here in Southwest Florida. Data depicted in the following tables is from the 2010 tax year, which was released on December 5, 2011. County to County migration data for tax year 2011 is expected to be released in November 2013. The data shows the top 25 originating counties and states for in-migrants.
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Migration, cont. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Collier Inflow Migration State County FL Lee County FL Miami Dade County FL Broward County FL Hillsborough County IL Cook County FR Foreign - Puerto Rico FL Palm Beach County MI Washtenaw County FL Orange County FL Hendry County MI Oakland County FL Charlotte County FL Sarasota County NY Suffolk County FL Polk County FL Pinellas County MA Essex County MA Barnstable County CT Fairfield County OH Franklin County AZ Maricopa County MA Middlesex County MI Wayne County NJ Morris County NY New York County
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25
Total 3490 806 440 270 213 188 182 152 148 132 119 109 104 104 98 92 92 87 83 79 77 76 75 74 73
Source: IRS
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25
Lee Inflow Migration State County FL Collier County FL Miami Dade County FL Broward County FL Charlotte County FL Hillsborough County FL Hendry County FL Palm Beach County FL Orange County FL Sarasota County IL Cook County FL Pinellas County NY Suffolk County FL Polk County FL Manatee County MI Oakland County FL Pasco County FL Seminole County FL Monroe County FL Marion County FL Duval County NY Queens County CT Hartford County FR Foreign - Puerto Rico OH Franklin County MI Wayne County FL Highlands County
Total 3464 1600 954 697 633 568 439 379 337 313 292 222 222 178 165 158 156 154 146 144 141 138 124 123 121 121
Source: IRS
Charlotte Inflow Migration State County FL Sarasota County FL Lee County FL Desoto County FL Hillsborough County FL Miami Dade County FL Broward County FL Manatee County FL Pinellas County FL Collier County FL Palm Beach County FL Orange County FL Polk County NJ Ocean County MI Oakland County IL Cook County MA Middlesex County MA Plymouth County NY Kings County MI Wayne County MA Worcester County MA Bristol County NY Suffolk County FL Brevard County FL Pasco County MA Norfolk County OH Cuyahoga County
Total 1909 648 256 170 148 115 114 112 90 89 75 75 53 48 47 43 43 43 41 40 36 36 35 34 33 33
Inflow from the top 15 originating states to Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined: Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: IRS
State New York New Jersey Ohio Massachusetts Michigan Illinois Pennsylvania Connecticut Indiana Texas Georgia California Maryland North Carolina New Hampshire Virginia Minnesota Wisconsin Rhode Island Tennessee
Total 2,110 1,531 1,487 1,468 1,409 1,366 1,101 713 600 571 502 482 432 370 324 317 307 305 281 267
Source: IRS
Historical data has shown a shift in in-migration from predominantly the Midwestern states years ago to predominantly Northeastern states in the most recent years.
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HOUSING OVERVIEW
Collier County Permits
The graphs in this section show the history of issued permits for single family detached, single family attached, and multifamily product in Collier County. All product types are important when viewed in terms of the overall health of the real estate market. Collier County saw a total of 1,447 single family detached permits issued over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 60.4% increase over the previous 12 month period. Continued growth is expected into 2014. Collier Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-99
Sep-99
0
Sep-98
50
Issued Permits
Source: Collier County Community Dev.
The following chart shows new single-family detached home permits issued per month in Collier County over only the past four years. Collier Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Source: Collier County Community Dev.
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Issued Permits
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Jul-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
10
Collier County Permits The following charts rank the top communities and builders for Collier County by building permit issuance for new single family detached homes over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Builder SF Permits Lennar 295 Pulte/Centex 262 GL Homes 235 Stock 217 Habitat For Humanitt 57 DR Horton 46 CC Devco 38 WCI Communities 27 FD Communities 26 Minto Communities 17 Toll Brothers 17 Premier Builders 16 London Bay 11 Premier Finishes 11 Titan Homes 11 ARBC 10 Taylor Morrison 9 Diamond Custom Homes 8 Divco 8 T. Jerulle Construction 6
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Community Riverstone The Quarry Del Webb Ave Maria Fiddler’s Creek Lely Resort Verona Walk Treviso Bay Copper Cove Reflection Lakes Grey Oaks Twin Eagles Lantana at Olde Cypress Black Bear Ridge Quail West Golden Gate Estates Golden Gate City Andalucia Heritage Bay Mediterra Orange Blossom Ranch
SF Permits 232 93 90 87 84 65 64 61 50 46 45 41 40 32 31 30 27 25 23 22
Collier Single Family Attached Issued Permits Per Month
There were a total of 147 new single family attached permits issued in Collier County over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 7.3% increase from the previous 12 month period for that product type.
40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Rank 1 2 3 4 5
Community Summit Place Verona Walk Reflection Lakes Liberty Landing Lely Resort
Rank 1 2 3 4 5
| 23 |
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Issued Permits
Source: Collier County Community Dev.
SFA Permits 80 29 16 11 8
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
0
Nov-09
5
Sep-09
The following charts rank the top communities and builders for Collier County by building permit issuance for new single family attached homes over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013.
Builder DR Horton Pulte Lenar Habitat for Humanity Stock Development
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SFA Permits 80 29 16 11 8
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Collier County Permits Collier County issued permits for 1,037 multifamily units (buildings with 3 or more units) over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a Collier Multifamily Units Issued Per Month 325 267.7% increase from the previous 12 month 300 period. 675 of the 1,037 multifamily units were for 275 for-rent apartments (620) or assisted living (55) 250 units. Excluding those 675 units, the county still 225 saw a 28.4% increase in multifamily permit 200 175 issuance over the past 12 months. Multifamily 150 permit issuance is expected to increase further in 125 Collier County over the next 24 months. 100
75 50
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Community Sierra Grande Apts Aster at Lely Apts. Lely Resort Treviso Bay Terracina Ast. Living Tiburon The Quarry Grey Oaks Heritage Bay
Source: Collier County Community Dev.
MF Permits 312 308 131 124 55 48 16 12 12
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6
Jul-13
Issued Units
Builder Brooks & Freund Lennar Stock Development Arks General Contracting Deangelis Diamond WCI Communities
MF Permits 524 152 131 96 55 48
The following graph shows the trend for total residential units permitted in all of Collier County over the past four years. Figures from the City of Naples and Marco Island are included in the graph. The City of Naples issued permits for 141 single family homes and 12 multifamily units over the past 12 months, while Marco Island issued 90 permits for new single family homes for the same time period. Collier County Total Residential Issued Units 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
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Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Issued Residential Units
Mar-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Source: LSI
Mar-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
0
Nov-09
50
Sep-09
Collier County issued permits for a total of 2,874 residential units across all product types and municipalities over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 95.8% increase over the previous 12 month period. When taking out the 675 apartment and assisted living units; Collier still saw a 49.8% increase in residential permit issuance. Looking forward, we believe residential permit issuance in Collier County will see an additional increase of 20%25% over the next 12 months.
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
25
The following tables rank the top communities and builders for Collier County by building permit issuance for new multifamily units over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013.
Lee County Permits The data for Lee County Unincorporated, which includes all of Lee County except Cape Coral, City of Bonita Springs and City of Fort Myers, is shown below. The City of Cape Coral, City of Bonita Springs, and City of Fort Myers have their own permit reporting department figures that are not included in the below chart. Lee County Unincorporated Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 1400 1,309
1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-01
Sep-01
0
Sep-00
100
Issued Permits
Source: Lee County Community Dev.
Lee County Unincorporated issued a total of 807 single family detached home permits over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 65.0% increase over the previous 12 month period. Further increases are expected in 2013. The following chart shows new single-family detached home permits issued per month in Unincorporated Lee County over only the past four years. Lee County Unincorporated Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Source: Lee County Community Dev.
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
5
Issued Permits
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Lee County Permits The top communities and builders of new single family detached homes in Unincorporated Lee County over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013 can be seen in the following tables. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Builder Lennar DR Horton Pulte/Centex Toll Brothers WCI Communities Kolter Signature Homes Neal Communities Adams Homes Habitat for Humanity Daniel Wayne Royal Corinthian Homes Aranda Homes WR Stancel Delacruz Enterprises Florida Lifestyle Homes
SF Permits 178 165 103 60 53 29 17 14 10 8 8 6 5 4 4
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Community Preserve at Corkscrew Verandah Bella Terra Moody River Hampton Park Banyan Bay The Reserve Lehigh Acres Magnolia Landing Belle Lago Miromar Lakes Cape Royal / Royal Tee Renaissance West Bay Horsecreek
SF Permits 197 81 76 65 49 48 43 27 23 17 17 11 9 9 6
In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 104 new single family attached permits issued for Lee Unincorporated over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 147.6% increase over the previous 12 month period for this product type. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. *Individual owner-builders and scattered lot duplexes not included Rank 1 2 3 4 5
Builder Taylor Morrison Neal Communities Westco DR Horton Golf to Gulf Builders
Rank
SF Permits 50 32 12 4 4
1 2 3 4
Community Tortuga Villas Palmeras Lucaya Magnolia Landing
SF Permits 34 32 16 4
*Individual owner-builders and scattered lot duplexes not included
There were also 216 multifamily units (3 + units per building) built in Unincorporated Lee County over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was an 86.2% increase over the previous 12 month period for this product type. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. Rank 1 2 3 4 5
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Builder DR Horton Taylor Morrison WCI Communities Lennar Gulfshore Homes
SF Permits 124 40 24 16 12
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Community Mirasol Tortuga The Colony G&CC Oaks at Whiskey Creek Somerset Emerson Square Miromar Lakes Terra Vista
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SF Permits 78 40 24 20 18 16 12 8
Lehigh Acres Submarket Lehigh Acres and Estero submarket figures, which are included in the Lee County Unincorporated chart, are shown separately in the next two charts. There were 27 permits issued for new single family homes in Lehigh Acres over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. There were only 8 new single family permits issued in total in Lehigh Acres over the three year period 2009-2011. Lehigh Acres Single Family Issued Permits Per Month 780 732
720 660 600 540 480 420 360 300 240 180 120
0
Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13
60
Issued Permits
Source: Lee County Community Dev.
Estero Submarket The Estero submarket shows a historical trend similar to that of Collier County as a whole. Solid increases are expected to continue in this submarket. Estero Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 180 165 150 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 30
Source: Lee County Community Dev.
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-01
Sep-01
0
Sep-00
15
Issued Permits
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The following chart shows new single-family detached home permits issued in Estero over the past four years. Estero issued 288 single family detached permits over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 32.7% increase over the previous 12 month period. Estero Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Sep-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
5
Issued Permits
Source: Lee County Community Dev.
Cape Coral Submarket The City of Cape Coral figures, shown in the following chart, are in addition to the Lee County Unincorporated figures. Cape Coral issued a total of 433 single family home permits over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 31.6% increase over the previous 12 month period. Cape Coral new single family home permit activity is expected to continue to increase in 2013. Cape Coral Single Family Issued Permits Per Month
900 840 780 720 660 600 540 480 420 360 300 240 180 120
0
Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13
60
Issued Permits
Source: City of Cape Coral
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The following chart shows new single-family detached home permits issued per month in Cape Coral over only the past four years. Cape Coral Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month
60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Jul-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
5
Issued Permits
Source: City of Cape Coral
The top builders and communities measured by single family detached permit issuance in the Cape Coral market for the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013 can be seen below. Rank Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Builder Taylor Morrison Adams Homes Lennar Community Homes DR Horton Sinclair Custom Homes Southern Premier Homes Tundra Homes Turn Key Homes Hansen Homes Latitude 26 Paul Homes Premier Cape Construction Coral Isle Builders Tracey Quality Building Tradewind Estate Homes Sterling Collection Pinnacle Building Solutions United Home Builders Aranda Homes
SF Permits 63 32 28 23 22 17 14 14 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6
| 29 |
1 2 3 4 5
Community Sandoval Bella Vida Cape Harbour Celebration Cape Tarpon Pointe
SF Permits 84 28 8 7 3
In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 30 new single family attached permits issued for the City of Cape Coral over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. Rank
Community 1 Taylor Morrison 2 AVS Cape Coral 3 Chase Construction
SF Permits 18 10 2
*Scattered lot duplexes not included in the chart.
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City of Fort Myers Submarket The figures for the City of Fort Myers are also in addition to the Lee County Unincorporated figures. The City of Fort Myers issued a total of 469 single family home permits over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was an 8.1% increase from the previous 12 month period.
City of Ft. Myers Single Family Detached Issued Permits
85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6
Builder Lennar WCI Communities Centex GL Homes Stock Development GW Johnson
SF Permits 179 107 81 53 34 2
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6
Community Pelican Preserve Plantation CC Reflection isles Forum West Botanica Lakes Paseo
Jul-13
SF Permits 107 81 79 71 53 34
In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 92 new single family attached permits issued for the City of Fort Myers over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 1.1% decrease for that product type over the previous 12 month period. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. Rank
1 2 3 4 5
Builder WCI Communities Centex Stock Development Lennar DR Horton
SFA Permits 32 20 18 16 6
Rank
1 2 3 4 5
Community Pelican Preserve Plantation CC Paseo Reflection Isles San Simeon
SFA Permits 32 20 18 16 6
There were also permits issued for 226 multifamily units (buildings with 3 or more units) in the City of Fort Myers over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was an 82.3% increase for that product type over the previous 12 month period. 86 of the 226 multifamily units were for rental apartments. Excluding those 86 rental units, the county still saw a 12.9% increase in multifamily permit issuance over the past 12 months. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. Rank 1 2 3 4
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Builder Stock Development Brooks & Freund WCI Communities Centex
MF Permits 112 86 16 12
Rank
| 30 | © 2013 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved
1 2 3 4
Community Paseo Sunnycrest Apts Plantation CC Pelican Preserve
MF Permits 112 86 16 12
Sep-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Issued Permits
Source: City of Ft Myers Community Dev.
The top communities and builders of new single family detached homes for the City of Fort Myers for the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013 can be seen in the following charts.
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
5
Bonita Springs Submarket
Bonita Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month
Permit figures for Bonita Springs were included in Lee County Unincorporated figures through June 2008. Beginning July 2008, Bonita Springs started to report their figures separately. Their single family detached figures are shown below.
165 150 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 30
Apr-13
Sep-13
Jun-12
Nov-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
May-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Jun-07
Nov-07
Jan-07
Aug-06
Oct-05
Mar-06
May-05
Jul-04
Dec-04
Feb-04
Apr-03
Sep-03
Jun-02
Nov-02
Jan-02
Aug-01
Oct-00
0
Mar-01
15
Issued Permits
Source: Bonita Springs Community Dev.
Bonita Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 55
The City of Bonita Springs issued a total of 354 new single family detached home permits over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was an 88.3% increase over the previous 12 month period.
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Source: Bonita Springs Community Dev.
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
5
The following chart shows new single family detached home permits issued per month in Bonita Springs over only the past four years.
Issued Permits
| 31 |
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The top builders and communities measured by single family detached permit issuance in the City of Bonita Springs for the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013 can be seen below. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Builder Pulte / Centex Toll Brothers Minto Communities DR Horton Lennar Unknown Stock Development McGarvey London Bay Habitat for Humanity
SF Permits 119 43 36 32 26 23 19 11 11 11
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Community Village Walk Bonita Lakes Hawthorne Bonita Isles Quail West Paloma Mediterra Fairwinds Cape Hickory Palmira
SF Permits 103 42 42 36 34 32 11 6 5 4
In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 88 new single family attached permits issued for the City of Bonita Springs over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. Rank
Builder 1 Minto Communities 2 Pulte 3 DR Horton
SF Permits
Rank 48 22 16
Community 1 Bonita Isles 2 Village Walk 3 Paloma
SF Permits 48 22 16
There were also permits issued for 84 multifamily units in the City of Bonita Springs over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. The builders and communities for that product type can be seen in the following charts. Rank
Builder 1 DR Horton 2 WCI 3 Lennar
SF Permits
Rank 28 24 20
Community 1 Sorrento 2 The Colony Golf & CC 3 Hawthorne
SF Permits 28 24 20
The following graph shows the trend for total residential units permitted in all of Lee County over the past four years. Figures from Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel Island are included in the graph. Fort Myers Beach had 24 permits issued over the past 12 months for new homes, while Sanibel had 17. Lee County issued permits for a total of 2,944 residential units across all product types and municipalities over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 57.3% increase over the previous 12 month period. Looking forward, we believe residential permit issuance in Lee County will see an additional increase of 25%-30% over the next 12 months.
Lee County Total Residential Issued Units 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50
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| 32 | © 2013 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Issued Residential Units
Source: LSI
More Than Just Dirt.
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
0
Sep-09
25
Charlotte County Permits
Charlotte Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 475 450 425 400 375
The graph shows the history of new single-family home permits issued in Charlotte County. There were a total of 380 permits issued for new single family homes within Charlotte County over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 44.5% increase from the previous 12 month period. Activity in Charlotte County is likely to improve over the next 12 months.
350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50
In addition, there were 23 single family attached permits issued over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013 within Charlotte County. All 23 were issued to DR Horton for their Landings at Coral Creek project.
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Issued Permits
Source: Charlotte County Building Dept.
The following chart shows new singlefamily home permits issued per month in Charlotte County over only the past four years.
Mar-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Mar-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Mar-06
0
Dec-05
25
Charlotte Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Source: Charlotte County Building Dept.
Issued permits
The top builders and communities measured by single family detached permit issuance in the Charlotte County for the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013 can be seen below. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Builder DM Dean Inc Adams Homes KB Homes Pulte / Centex Maronda Homes Snyder Construction Your Home of Florida Snyder Built Const. Breakwater Const. Habitat for Humanity
SF Permits
Rank 35 31 28 27 24 24 24 21 13 11
1 2 3 4
| 33 |
Community Creekside Riverwood River Club Waterford
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SF Permits 36 28 18 11
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Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
0
Nov-09
5
Sep-09
Charlotte County issued permits for a total of 403 residential units across all product types over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 45.5% increase over the previous 12 month period.
Total Combined Permits There were a total of 6,221 permits issued for new residential units in Collier, Lee and Charlotte Counties combined over the past 12 months ending on September 30, 2013. This was a 72.0% increase from the previous 12 month period. We project around 6,500 new residential units will be permitted in the 2013 calendar year. The combined monthly trend can be seen in the following graph. Total Residential Units Permitted 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
150 100
Total Residential Units Permitted
If we see another 72% increase in new residential units permitted over the next 12 months, we would have 10,700 new units permitted. This is believed to be above what historical, current and projected population growth supports. Current (Census) and projected (BEBR) population growth figures supports a level between 8,780 and 10,469 new residential units per year.
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| 34 | © 2013 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved
LSI has you covered every step of the way... It’s the most important service we offer... our team and our total commitment to providing complete and competent service every time, exceeding your expectations. It doesn’t help you much if we take you part of the way and then leave you hanging. We have very dedicated, experienced and committed professionals. This has brought us to the top of the real estate industry in Southwest Florida.
Management Team Randy Thibaut, President, is owner and founder of Land Solutions, Inc. Randy’s role is that of visionary, establishing new investor relations to bring capital resources into SW Florida and providing his team with the best tools, resources and connections available. Randy has over 20 years in the SW Florida real estate industry in sales, construction, project management, residential sales, etc. and has been involved in numerous real estate deals in SW Florida. He has personally brokered over a billion dollars in real estate transactions.
Kris Denny is the Chief Operating Officer of Land Solutions. She comes to Land Solutions with 30 years of accounting and managerial experience in the land development industry. Her responsibilities include business and administrative management and accounting. She is responsible for creating detailed proformas and financial analysis on various types of real estate
Kelli Eastman-Billings is the Sales Manager for Land Solutions responsible for supervision and development of the Real Estate Sales team, while maximizing marketshare and revenue for the Company. Her responsibilities include the management of real estate listings, work with sales staff to establish realistic sales goals, monitor daily performance, and provide assistance with contract negotiations.
Randy is a co-founder and served as a board member for Builders Care, a non-profit organization started by the Lee Building Industry Assoc. to provide construction services at no cost to needy and deserving elderly and disabled homeowners who cannot obtain home repairs through traditional means. He also serves on the board of the Lee Building Association and is a candidate to become a Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) and Accredited Land Consultant (ALC). Randy grew up on a large farm in Central Ohio where he learned the land business from his grandfather, who was successful in buying and selling large tracts of land.
Since 2002, Kelli enjoyed a successful career with Bonita Bay Group in various management capacities. Prior to joining Bonita Bay Group, Kelli was Broker, Director of Sales and Marketing with WCI for six years, where she gained broad experience in master-planned communities and the Southwest Florida housing market.
| 35 |
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SALES William “Billy” Rollins is the Senior Broker at Land Solutions. He is a third generation Floridian and is a licensed real estate broker in Florida, Georgia and Alabama. He specializes in the acquisition and disposition of real estate assets Billy is a CCIM and an ALC. He holds a BS degree in business and an AS degree in citrus production. Doug Meschko is the Market Research Director & Sales Associate for Land Solutions. A resident of Naples, Doug is also a licensed broker with 13 years of real estate experience from consulting to sales and leasing. He was previously a Market Analyst for Metrostudy, holds a BA degree from Ohio State and has an MBA from FGCU. Janie B. Hooker is the Director of Land Acquisitions and a licensed broker. Janie is responsible for exploring new land acquisition opportunities, securing land positions and assisting with contract negotiations. She attended Edison Junior College with a focus in Business and Accounting studies. She has over 40 years of local real estate/construction experience and contacts, is a member of the Real Estate Investment Society (REIS), The Natl. Assoc. of Realtors & The Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers. Michael Price serves the team as a Sales Associate with a main focus is the sale of commercial real estate, and procurement of new listings and clients for the company. He is a graduate of the Lutgert School of Business at FGCU with a B.S. in Management.
Rob Mintz is the Property Research Manager for Land Solutions. He conducts analysis to determine feasibility and entitlements for new development in the Southwest Florida area. He attended Boston University, and also has an MBA from Hofstra University. SUPPORT TEAM Janeen Jones is the Real Estate Legal Coordinator for Land Solutions. She has collectively 18 years of administrative experience in commercial real estate and serves as a liaison between outside law firms and community management companies. She attended Edison State College with a focus on Paralegal Studies and will serve as the coordination point for legal document processing. Before joining the Land Solutions team, Janeen worked for North American Properties and two local law firms specializing in commercial real estate.
Matthew E. Harden is a Sales Associate responsible for finding new land opportunities and assisting clients with land sales. He has over 30 years experience in the homebuilding industry. He received his Associate of Science degree from Miami-Dade CC. He is a member of the Real Estate Investment Society (REIS), The Natl. Assoc. of Realtors & The Realtor Assoc. of Greater Fort Myers. Mark Price is the Property Researcher/Sales Associate and is a Fort Myers native, who lived in South Fort Myers until departing for The Ohio State University. He graduated with a B.A. degree in Urban and Regional Studies from one of the country’s premier geography programs.
LAND SERVICES Sharail Cluck serves as VP of Land Services for Land Solutions. She is responsible for all land activities, including feasibility, permit compliance, development management, ongoing asset management, zoning and permitting. Sharail has a J.D. degree and has over 10 years experience in land development. Andrew T. Nielsen serves as a Land Services Coordinator for Land Solutions. He is responsible for assisting with various aspects of land activities including real estate feasibility, entitlement and construction management processes. Andrew has nearly 12 years of experience in residential and commercial construction as well as land planning in the southwest Florida area.
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Colleen O’Connor is the Contract Administrator at Land Solutions and a licensed real estate agent. Her focus is to assist with sales reporting, property research and contract administration for the organization. Colleen has nearly 10 years experience in commercial real estate experience in southwest Florida and is a Lee County native. Before joining the Land Solutions team, Colleen worked for several prominent real estate organizations in the area. Melissa Ward is the Executive Assistant to Randy Thibaut for Land Solutions. She has served in various capacities within the real estate industry over the years and we are pleased to have her as part of the Land Solutions team. Melissa attended Grand Valley State University in her home state of Michigan. Pat Whipple serves as an Office Manager for Land Solutions. Her responsibilities include insurance, license & documentation support, database and accounting assistance and office administration. She studied accounting at Randolph Community College in her home state of New Jersey. Pat has been a Florida resident for the past ten years. Dawn Russell is the Office Administrator at Land Solutions and responsible for welcoming our clients, office support, and front office coordination. She provides administrative support and assists with various business and operational responsibilities. Dawn received her Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Central Florida with a focus in interpersonal communication. George W. Bush is the Director of Property Management, responsible for the servicing of corporate owned assets, the management of the properties listed with Land Solutions, and advisor to property owners of the condition of their properties. He has a lifetime of experience in construction and property management.
| 36 | © 2013 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Collier MLS Sales Trends The following graphs indicate single family and multifamily sales trends for Collier County only. The data for this portion of the report was obtained from the Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR). The median price for the third quarter of 2013 stood around $294,000 for a single family home, which was an 18.1% increase over the same period from 2012. Collier Single Family MLS
# Sold
Source: NABOR
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13 Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
Average Sale Price
Sep-12
250
May-12
275
$150,000
Jan-12
300
$200,000
Nov-11
325
$250,000
Jul-11
$300,000
Sep-11
350
May-11
375
$350,000
Jan-11 Mar-11
400
$400,000
Nov-10
425
$450,000
Jul-10
450
$500,000
Sep-10
$550,000
May-10
475
Jan-10 Mar-10
500
$600,000
Sep-09
525
$650,000
# Sold
550
$700,000
Nov-09
Price
$750,000
Median Sale Price
The median income in Collier County supports a median home price of approximately $223,000 with a 10% down payment and assuming a 4.5% interest rate. The median price for the third quarter of 2013 stood around $195,000 for multifamily homes in Collier County. This was a 19.6% increase over the same period from 2012. Collier Multifamily MLS
Source: NABOR
# Sold
Average Sale Price
| 37 |
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
100
Sep-11
150
$100,000
Jul-11
200
$125,000
May-11
250
$150,000
Mar-11
300
$175,000
Jan-11
350
$200,000
Nov-10
400
$225,000
Sep-10
450
$250,000
Jul-10
500
$275,000
May-10
550
$300,000
Jan-10
600
$325,000
Mar-10
650
$350,000
Sep-09
700
$375,000
# Sold
750
$400,000
Nov-09
Price
$425,000
Median Sale Price
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Lee MLS Sales Trends The following graphs indicate single family and multifamily sales trends for Lee County only. The data was taken from the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach. The median price for the third quarter of 2013 stood at $155,000 for a single family home, which was a 24.0% increase over the same period from 2012. Lee Single Family MLS
# Sold
Average Sale Price
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
600
Sep-12
$60,000
May-12
700
Jan-12
800
$80,000
Mar-12
$100,000
Nov-11
900
Jul-11
$120,000
Sep-11
1000
May-11
$140,000
Jan-11
1100
Mar-11
$160,000
Nov-10
1200
Jul-10
$180,000
Sep-10
1300
May-10
$200,000
Jan-10
1400
Mar-10
$220,000
Sep-09
1500
# Sold
1600
$240,000
Nov-09
Price
$260,000
Median Sale Price
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
The median home price in Lee County is still below what the county’s median income supports. The median income supports a median home price of approximately $187,000 with a 10% down payment and assuming a 4.5% interest rate. The median price for the third quarter of 2013 stood at $133,000 for multifamily homes in Lee County. This was a 16.2% increase over the same period from 2012. Lee Multifamily MLS
# Sold
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Average Sale Price
Median Sale Price
| 38 | © 2013 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
# Sold
150
Nov-11
200
$80,000
Sep-11
250
$90,000
Jul-11
300
$100,000
May-11
$110,000
Mar-11
350
Jan-11
400
$120,000
Nov-10
450
$130,000
Sep-10
500
$140,000
Jul-10
550
$150,000
May-10
$160,000
Jan-10
600
Mar-10
650
$170,000
Sep-09
700
$180,000
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
More Than Just Dirt.
750
$190,000
Nov-09
Price
$200,000
Cape Coral & Lehigh Acres Sales Trends A full recovery in the Southwest Florida residential real estate market is believed to be underway with the hardest hit areas of Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres now showing demand for new homes. Home to a large percentage of the workforce in Southwest Florida, these areas have been severely affected by the real estate collapse and the high unemployment that essentially followed. These two factors coupled with the vast real estate speculation that caused a substanial oversupply, drove home prices below replacement cost in these communities.
$170
260
$160
240
$150
220
$140
200
$130
180
$120
160
$110
140
$100
120
$90
100
$80
80
$70
60
$60
40
$50
20
$40
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
Sales Per Month
Price Per Square Foot
$180
280
Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
The following graphs indicate sales trends of single family homes built in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres from 2004 to 2010. These homes are believed to be the primary competition for new homes in their submarkets. As of September 2013, the price per square foot for these newer homes stands around $82 in Cape Coral and $58 in Lehigh Acres.
300
MLS Cape Coral Single Family Detached Non-Waterfront (Homes Built 2004-2010)
Sales Per Month
We started to see a significant increase in demand for new homes in Cape Coral in late 2011 and now we are starting to see new homes being built in Lehigh Acres. There were 27 permits issued for new single family homes in Lehigh Acres over the past 12 months. There were only 8 new single family permits issued in total in Lehigh Acres over the three year period of 20092011 combined.
$ PSF
The Cape Coral housing market is making significant strides toward recovery with continued increases in home prices and new home permits.
$290,000
1950
$275,000
1925
$260,000
1900
$245,000
1875
$230,000
1850
$215,000
1825
$200,000
1800
$185,000
1775
$170,000
1750
$155,000
1725
$140,000
1700
$125,000
1675
$110,000
1650
$95,000
1625
$80,000
Average Square Footage
Average Price Per Sale
$305,000
1975
Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
Average Square Footage
2000
MLS Cape Coral Single Family Detached Non-Waterfront (Homes Built 2004-2010)
Average Price Per Sale
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
| 39 |
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Lehigh Acres Sales Trends All Lehigh Acres Single Family Detached Sales (Homes Built 2004-2010)
$180
300
$170
280
$160
260
$150
240
$140
220
$130
200
$120
180
$110
160
$100
140
$90
120
$80
100
$70
80
$60
60
$50
40
$40
20
$30
0
$20
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
Sales Per Month
Price Per Square Foot
$190
320
Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
Sales Per Month
340
$ PSF
The last time the per square foot sales price for homes built in Lehigh Acres, 2004 or later, was above the current $58 PSF price point was in September of 2008. All Lehigh Acres Single Family Detached Sales (Homes Built 2004-2010)
$245,000
1750
$230,000
1725
$215,000
1700
$200,000
1675
$185,000
1650
$170,000
1625
$155,000
1600
$140,000
1575
$125,000
1550
$110,000
1525
$95,000
1500
$80,000
1475
$65,000
1450
$50,000
Average Price Per Sale
$260,000
1775
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
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$275,000
1800
Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
Average Home Square Footage
1825
Average Square Footage
Average Price Per Sale
| 40 | © 2013 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Subdivision Vacant Developed Lot Inventories The following charts show the top subdivisions by volume of vacant developed lot (VDL) inventories for Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties as of 9/30/2013.
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Source:
Collier Vacant Developed Lots Community VDL Quail West Riverstone Arrowhead Reserve Royal Palm Golf Estates Fiddlers Creek Reflection Lakes Treviso Bay Ave Maria (Total) Twin Eagles Quarry Mediterra Verona Walk Grey Oaks & Estuary Lantana at Olde Cypress Talis Park Valencia Orange Blossom Ranch Andalucia Camden Lakes Lely Resort Copper Cove Orange Blossom Grove Artesia Coco Lakes Valencia Lakes LSI
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Source:
Rank 365 231 286 221 163 152 141 136 119 101 93 88 75 75 70 70 69 68 64 58 52 47 40 39 34
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Source:
Lee Vacant Developed Lots Community VDL River Hall Plantation CC Shadow lakes Preserve at Corkscrew Villagewalk Moody River Pelican Preserve The Grove Verandah Town Lakes Bella Vida Cape Royal Caloosa Preserve Magnolia Landing/Herons Glen Paseo Bonita Lakes Sandoval Miromar Lakes Horse Creek Coastal Key Forum West Corkscrew Ranch Olympia Pointe Renaissance Reflection Isles LSI
Charlotte Vacant Developed Lots Community VDL Tern Bay Waterford Estates River Club Creekside Calusa Creek Eagle Preserve Estates Oak Harbour Villa Milano Kingsgate Riverwood Rio Villas LSI
| 41 |
1014 303 228 220 206 188 183 163 148 140 133 133 113 112 102 86 86 82 73 72 67 60 60 58 54
201 200 178 146 106 69 41 33 28 22 20
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Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres Lot Sales Trends The depressed new home market in Lehigh Acres and Cape Coral, caused by the recent recession, led to massive declines in single family lot prices in those markets. The average selling price for a lot in Lehigh Acres and Cape Coral fell about 92%-95% from their peak in late 2005. On average, lots sold for approximately $17,187 in Cape Coral and $3,506 in Lehigh Acres in the third quarter of 2013. Comparatively, the average selling price in 2003 was $16,804 in Cape Coral and $6,860 in Lehigh Acres. The following charts indicate average lot sale trends in those markets for lots under 0.33 acres on a monthly basis. Lehigh Acres Single Family Lot Sales (Under .33 Acres)
Sales Per Month
$5,000
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
70
$4,500
60
$4,000
50
$3,500
40
$3,000
30
$2,500
20
$2,000
10
$1,500
0
$1,000
Sales Per Month
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
www.landsolutions.net
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
Lehigh Acres Single Family Lot Sales (Under .33 Acres)
Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13
Sales Per Month
May-10
Average Price Per Sale
80
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$0
Average Price Per Sale
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Average Price Per Sale
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
Sep-09
$3,000
0
Jan-09
$6,000
25
May-09
$9,000
50
Sep-08
$12,000
75
Jan-08
$15,000
100
May-08
$18,000
125
Sep-07
$21,000
150
Jan-07
$24,000
175
May-07
$27,000
200
Sep-06
$30,000
225
Jan-06
$33,000
250
May-06
$36,000
275
Sep-05
$39,000
300
Jan-05
$42,000
325
May-05
$45,000
350
Sep-04
$48,000
375
Jan-04
$51,000
400
May-04
$54,000
425
Average Price Per Sale
$57,000
450
Sep-03
Sales Per Month
475
Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres Lot Sales Trends
$20,000
70
$18,000
60
$16,000
50
$14,000
40
$12,000
30
$10,000
20
$8,000
10
$6,000
0
$4,000
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
Sales Per Month
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Average Price Per Sale
$22,000
80
Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13
Sales Per Month
MLS Cape Coral Non-Waterfront Single Family Lot Sales (Under .33 acres)
$0
Average Price Per Sale
Average Price Per Sale
Sales Per Month
Source: Greater Ft Myers MLS
Sep-09
$6,000
Jan-09
$12,000
20
May-09
$18,000
40
Sep-08
$24,000
60
Jan-08
$30,000
80
May-08
$36,000
100
Sep-07
$42,000
120
Jan-07
$48,000
140
May-07
$54,000
160
Sep-06
$60,000
180
Jan-06
$66,000
200
May-06
$72,000
220
Sep-05
$78,000
240
Jan-05
$84,000
260
May-05
$90,000
280
Jan-04
$96,000
300
May-04
$102,000
320
0
90
$108,000
340
Sep-03
Sales Per Month
360
Sep-04
Data in the chart below regarding Cape Coral lot sales only pertain to non-waterfront lots.
MLS Cape Coral Non-Waterfront Single Family Lot Sales (Under .33 acres)
It appears that lot prices in Cape Coral lifted off the bottom in late 2011 and have trended upward since. Lot prices in Lehigh Acres appear to have hit bottom in late 2012 and we are starting to see a little upward movement in the price trend.
Average Price Per Sale
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FORECLOSURE DATA New foreclosure filings and bank repossessions have fallen considerably from Q4 2009, however the current levels are still about 3 times greater than historic averages. The banks also still have a considerable amount of unlisted bank REO (aka Shadow Inventory) that still needs to be released to market. These assets are held up within banks because of time required for property appraisals or other like kind reports to be prepared, as well as to secure the funds to offset the losses. The offsetting funds are garnered either from ongoing bank operations or from FDIC reimbursements (aka loss sharing). Disposition of these bank assets are also made with high regard to quarterly bank earnings statements. The following chart indicates new foreclosure filings (Lis Pendens) and property repossessions (Certificate of Title) from those filings for Collier County. A “Certificate of Title” is the document issued to the successful bidder at least ten days after the auction, evidencing the buyer’s ownership. Collier Lis Pendens Filings versus Certificate of Title 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Sep-09
Lis Pendens
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-08
Source: Collier County Clerk of Courts
Sep-08
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-06
Mar-07
Sep-06
0
Certificate of Title
Not all of the above data is limited to banks. The data also includes filings and repossessions for construction liens, tax liens, community association liens and other similar liens. Although these types of liens are representative of a bad economy, they do not put significant downward pressure on pricing of bank REO assets.
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Foreclosure Data, cont. With all non-bank data removed, it can be inferred that approximately 85%-90% of all new foreclosure filings (Lis Pendens) and repossessions (Certificate of Title) made in Collier County were made on behalf of banks. A sample was also taken to estimate the proportion of foreclosures located in the Golden Gate Estates area. The sample showed roughly 50%-55% of all foreclosures in Collier County are located in the Golden Gate Estates area. Lee Lis Pendens Filings versus Certificates of Title 2850
Lee County foreclosure figures can be seen in the following graph. Again, it can be inferred that approximately 85%-90% of the figures pertain only to banks.
2700 2550 2400 2250 2100 1950 1800 1650 1500
A sample of the above data revealed approximately 75% of the foreclosure filings in Lee County are in the Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres submarkets.
1350 1200 1050 900 750 600 450 300 150
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-09
Lis Pendens
Source: Lee County Clerk of Courts
Mar-10
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-07
Sep-07
Mar-07
Sep-06
Dec-06
0
Certificate of Title
Figures for new foreclosure filings (Lis Pendens) in Charlotte County can be seen in the following graph. Again, it can be inferred that approximately 85%-90% of the figures pertain to banks; derived from analyzing Collier County figures. Charlotte County Charlotte County Lis Pendens Filings does not have a streamlined 550 process to track repossessions 500 (Certificate of Title) from 450 the new foreclosure filings; 400 however, they are believed to be proportionate relative to Collier 350 and Lee Counties. 300 250 200 150 100 50
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-08
Source: Charlotte County Clerk of Courts
Sep-08
Dec-07
Mar-08
Sep-07
Jun-07
Mar-07
Sep-06
Dec-06
0
Lis Pendens Filings
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National Foreclosure Picture A national 2009 projection from Credit Suisse depicting anticipated interest rate resets on subprime, Alt-A, and option ARM loans by dollar volume is shown below. These loans, primarily subprime, were the driving force behind the real estate collapse.
The graph depicts the subprime recasts tapered off in the spring of 2009 and the Option ARM recasts in late 2012. Although some Option ARMs remain. The Option ARM borrowers had better credit than subprime borrowers, but were still paying well below-market initial rates, which eventually recast to much higher payments. Falling housing prices have caused many of these Option ARM borrowers to hit the principal balance cap on their loans, which range from 110%-125% of the loan amount. When the loan amount becomes 110%-125% of the value of the home, the loan is recast causing huge increases in their monthly payments. A fairly large proportion of these Option ARM loans are likely to have been made here in Southwest Florida. It is not known to what degree the banks are monitoring principal cap limits on Option ARM loans. Anecdotal information indicates that many banks have turned a blind eye towards the issue. In any event, many Option ARM borrowers likely anticipated their fate from the recast and have already defaulted or walked away. This being said, new foreclosure filings are expected to fall from current levels through 2013. The disposition of bank REO will likely persist through late-2014, although with each passing month the effect of bank REO on the market is minimized due to the healthy recovery that is underway.
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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INDEX The following graphs produced by Ken Simonson, Chief Economist for the Associated General Contractors (AGC) of America, show price indices for various construction materials with a base starting point of January 2011. Costs on most materials have gradually risen since early 2009. Higher material costs are a concern because they make new homes less competitive against re-sales. However, rising interest rates will help strengthen the U.S. Dollar and likely lead to lower material costs over the next few years domestically.
Source: AGC of America
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ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS Road Projects
1
Six-laning of Oil Well Rd from Immokalee Road to Everglades / Four-laning from Everglades Blvd to Camp Keais Six-laning of Collier Blvd from Green Blvd South to Golden Gate Pkwy Six-laning of Davis Blvd from Collier Blvd to west of Radio Rd. Eight-laning of Collier Blvd from Davis Road north to Golden Gate Canal US 41 & Collier Blvd overpass construction
2
3
4
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Collier County Start Date
#
February 2010
Estimated Completion Date October 2012
January 2013
January 2015
October 2011
March 2014
October 2013
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Lee County #
Road Projects
Start Date
1 2
Four Laning Alico Rd. east to Aiport Haul Rd. Four-laning of Burnt Store Rd. from Pine Island Rd. north to Van Buren Six-laning I-75 from Bayshore Rd. north to Charlotte County line Four laning Homestead Rd. from Sunrise Blvd. north Six-laning of Bonita Beach Rd from Old 41 east to Lime St Six-laning of I-75 from Luckett Rd to north of Palm Beach Blvd Six-laning of US 41 from Corkscrew Rd north to San Carlos Blvd New I-75 interchange with direct access to Southwest Florida International Airport Shangri-La Rd extension, connection Imperial Pkwy to Old 41 Six laning I-75 from Palm Beach Blvd. north to Bayshore Rd. including new bridge over Caloosahatchee River Build flyover connecting Metro Pkwy. to Fowler St. south of Hanson St. and north of Winkler Ave. Four Laning Pine Island Road from Burnt Store Road east to Chiquita Blvd.
January 2015 January 2014
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12
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September 2012
Estimated Completion Date
November 2014
January 2015 August 2011
February 2013
June 2011
November 2013
April 2011
August 2013
October 2012
April 2015
August 2012
February 2013
November 2012
November 2015
January 2013
July 2015
July 2013
December 2014
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# 1
Road Projects
Charlotte County Start Date
New Four-laning of Winchester Blvd from McCall Rd South to Placida Rd 2 Burnt Store widening to four lanes from Zemel Rd South to Lee County Line 3 Four-laning of Placida Rd from Rotunda Blvd West to Cape Haze Dr 4 Four-laning of Edgewater Drive from Harbor Blvd West to Midway Blvd 5 Six-laning of I-75 from Tuckers Grade north to Jones Loop Road 6 Four laning CR 771 (Gasparilla Rd.) from SR 776 to Rotunda Blvd. East Infrastructure & Public Works 7 Utility expansion of water and sewer along US 41 from Collingswood Blvd North to the Sarasota County line
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October 2012
Estimated Completion Date May 2014
May 2013
December 2012
October 2013
March 2013
April 2015
October 2011
April 2013
December 2013
September 2016
August 2014
May 2016
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GENERAL AND LIMITING CONDITIONS Every reasonable effort has been exerted in order that the data contained in this report reflects the most accurate and timely information that is possible, within practical budget limitations, and is believed to be reliable. However, no responsibility is assumed for errors or inaccuracies caused by any clerical error or inadvertent mistakes in the transcription of information from public domain to this report. Commissioning of this report does not grant the client any right of access to, or ownership of, any data, computer programs, spreadsheets or any other work product acquired or created by Land Solutions Inc., whether for the preparation of this report or otherwise. This report may not be used for any purpose other than that for which it was prepared. No part of this report may be published without the prior written consent of Land Solutions, Inc. Violation of these limiting conditions may lead to legal action and damages against the offending party.
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Market Research & Reporting by: Doug Meschko, Director of Market Research
As the Director of Market Research for Land Solutions, it is my goal to provide the most accurate and up-to-date information about land and improved properties throughout Southwest Florida. I have been active in real estate statistics and valuation for several years. I was previously a Research Analyst with MetroStudy and continue to provide the most comprehensive research and reporting to our prospects and clients. Unlike other research organizations who rely on national data to formulate market predictions, we track transactional data including permitting and demographics to paint an accurate picture of the market in real time. We research every aspect of statistical and transactional data in Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties to keep the finger on the pulse in southwest Florida.
Should you need assistance with real estate market research or reporting, please consider Land Solutions as your brokerage firm that can provide your organization with any of the following: Market Studies Valuation Services Litigation Support Target Market Analysis Highest and Best Use Analysis Feasibility Analysis Site Selection Data Gathering Appraisal Reviews Pricing Strategy Absorption Forecasts Demographic Analysis Acquisition, Reposition, & Disposition Strategies Broker Opinion of Value Custom Reports Product Recommendations
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Doug Meschko is the Market Research Director & Sales Associate for Land Solutions. A resident of Naples, Doug is also a licensed broker with 10 years of real estate experience ranging from consulting to sales and leasing. He was previously a Market Analyst for Metrostudy. He holds a BA degree from Ohio State and has an MBA from Florida Gulf Coast University.
We research every aspect of statistical and transactional data in Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties to keep the finger on the pulse in southwest Florida.
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“
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
About Doug Meschko
About Lee County Lee County is located in the southwest corner of Florida. The county makes up the entirety of the Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area, and is the most populous county in Southwest Florida.
History
Lee County was created in 1887 from Monroe County. It was named for Robert E. Lee, Confederate general in the American Civil War. Incorporated in 1886, Fort Myers is the center of a popular tourist area in Southwest Florida and the seat of Lee County. It is located about 120 miles south of Tampa at the meeting point of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caloosahatchee River. Fort Myers was the frequent winter home of Thomas Edison, as well as Henry Ford. Lee County has been the host to several Major League Baseball teams for Spring Training, over the past several decades. Currently, it is the spring home of the Boston Red Sox, as well as the Minnesota Twins.
Fort Myers, built in 1850 as a military fort to fend off Seminole Indians that were massacring the area’s few settlers, was named after Col. Abraham C. Myers, who was stationed in Florida for seven years and was the son-in-law of the fort’s establisher and commander. In 1858, after years of elusive battle, chief Billy Bowlegs and his warriors were persuaded to surrender and move west, and the fort was abandoned. Ford, Edison & Firestone
Geography
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the county has a total area of 1,212 square miles (3,139 km²), of which, 804 square miles (2,081 km²) of it is land and 408 square miles (1,057 km²) of it (33.69%) is water.
Interesting Facts • • • • • • • • • •
The Lee County Public School System is the ninth largest in Florida and the 40th largest in the U.S. Southwest Florida International Airport is one of the newest in the U.S. and occupies 3,431 acres 10 mi southeast of Fort Myers. The Airport terminal is 798,000 Sq. ft. with a design capacity of 10 million passengers per year. Page Field General Aviation Airport serves over 77,000 aircraft operations per year, making it the one of the busiest general aviation airports in Florida. Lee County is home to Edison State College, FGCU, (Florida Gulf Coast University) and multiple other colleges. FGCU is located in the Southeastern part of Lee County equidistant between Naples and Fort Myers and is the fastest growing of the State Universities in Florida and is currently evaluating fielding a NCAA Football Team. Edison State College is accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and schools and has expanded from the original Edison Community College. Lee County is well known for its hospital system. Gulf Coast Community is one of the newest in Florida, joining with Lee Memorial, Lee Health Park, Cape Coral Hospital, and Lehigh Hospital. Lee County is home to the Florida Everblades professional hockey team, who have been consistently at the top of the ECHL standings, winning the Kelly Cup in 2012. Lee County and Southwest Florida are internationally known for having the finest beaches in the world. Sanibel and Captiva Island beaches have been featured and designated in the top 10 beaches of the world.
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About Collier County History Collier County was created in 1923 from Lee County. It was named for Barron Collier, a New York City advertising mogul and real estate developer. He agreed to build the Tamiami Trail for what was then Lee County in exchange for favorable consideration with the state legislature to have a county named for him.
Geography According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the county has a total area of 2,305 square miles (5,969.9 km2), of which 2,025 square miles (5,244.7 km2) is land and 280 square miles (725.2 km2) (12.13%) is water. This makes Collier county the second largest county in the state of Florida (Palm Beach County being the largest).
Interesting Facts • • • • • • • • • • •
Collier County encompasses 2025 square miles out of a total for Florida of 53,926 square miles. Naples has always been famous for it’s Zoo. Originally established at the edge of town, it has now become right at the heart of the city. Collier County is at the very gateway to the Everglades National Park, and home to over a dozen State or National Parks. Naples is one of the nation’s highest average net worth cities, and offers a variety of cultural and art experiences, including the Naples Philharmonic Center. The Naples Municipal Airport is a FBO operation with limited service by carriers such as Exec Air, and Naples Air as well as home to the Naples Jet Center. The Naples Public Pier is a local landmark with more than 1000 feet of boardwalk. Naples has more than 12 regional shopping malls plus the central business district. The Naples calendar is loaded with events, including the Mullet Festival, Everglades Seafood Festival, ACE Group Classic PGA and LPGA Tournaments, Swamp Buggy Races, and many more. Naples is one of the few cities in the world that can boast two Ritz Carlton Hotels.
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About Charlotte County Charlotte County is at the north end of what is generally known as Southwest Florida. Its population and general business activity is centered around the 3 mile wide Charlotte Harbor fed by the Peace River extending east toward the middle of Florida.
History Charlotte County was established April 23, 1921. It was named for the Bay of Charlotte Harbor. “Charlotte” came from “Carlos” (Spanish), “Charles” (English), or “Calos” (Calusa Indian). In 1565, the Spanish named “Carlos Bay,” followed by the English in 1775 who named the area Charlotte Harbor in tribute to the Queen Charlotte Sophia, wife of King George III. On August 13, 2004 Charlotte County was devastated when Hurricane Charley came ashore near Port Charlotte as a Category 4 hurricane. Historic places in Charlotte County include the Old Charlotte County Courthouse as well as those on the List of Registered Historic Places in Charlotte County.
Interesting Facts • • • • • • • •
A significant portion of Charlotte County is taken up by the Cecil Webb Wildlife Management Area. Charlotte County is the national host to the Senior Games in March. Charlotte County is a coastal location home to miles of pristine beaches. Punta Gorda, Englewood, Boca Grand, Rotunda, and Murdock are some of the notable cities. Charlotte County is the spring training home of the “Rays” The Charlotte County municipal airport has non-stop flights to Canada. Charlotte County has a campus of Edison State College, and land recently acquired for a branch campus of Florida Gulfcoast University. Charlotte Harbor has been recognized as one of the Tarpon Fishing capitals of the world, and home to the largest Tarpon fishing tournament in the country. The waters have been fished by many Presidents, including Teddy Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, George H. Bush and George W. Bush.
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