How Might a Complexity Lens be Like and How Might We Use It? Siew Ann CHEONG School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences + Complexity Institute Complexity Lens Workshop | 9–10 July 2015 | Singapore
Outline • From Optics to Complexity • From Knowledge to Knowing no mistake! • From Complex Data to Complexity Knowledge hopefully, through some complexity lens
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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FROM OPTICS TO COMPLEXITY
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Knowing Through Optics light rays carry information about their source
lens transforms light rays present image at a convenient scale Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Knowing Through Optics More star
intergalactic cloud
knowledge about intergalactic cloud
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
lens
blur image of star = info + noise
knowledge allows noise cancellation
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Condition for Knowing
intelligent beings living in totally dark interior of planet
cannot comprehend! no previous encounter with star no understanding of how lens work
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Templates of Knowledge TEMPLATE
A
甲 乙
丁 丙
new phenomenon
茂
analogy rigorous equivalence
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
B
D C
E
old phenomenon
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Resolution and Aggregation group similar objects = lower resolution
all objects distinct = high resolution Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
increase signal-to-noise ratio
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Information and Scale new information
emergence = new information organization at different scales new templates may be needed new information at this scale no new information at this scale
scale (length or time) Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Jian Cheng WONG, Gladys Hui Ting NG, Yiting ZHANG Division of Mathematical Sciences School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Nanyang Technological University Jun Liang KOK, Manamohan PRUSTY, Boon Kin TEH Division of Physics and Applied Physics School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Nanyang Technological University
FROM KNOWLEDGE TO KNOWING
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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The Chemical Reaction Template A A
B
+
C
D
A B
B
+
*
reactants
+
B
C
D
C
C D
A
D
A
transition state
initial state Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
+
B
C
+
D
products final state
energy barrier
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History Dependence of Chemical Reaction A
B
A B
C D
A B
D
+
A
+
*
C D
A
B
+
B
* D
D C
B A
reaction
+
C
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
C
C
no reaction
D 12
Adaptation in Chemical Reactions A
lives long enough
A
B
B
+
root of ‘wicked problems’ = combination of path dependence + internal dynamics
B
* C
C
D
A
D
D
A
B
* D
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
+
preferred outcome
C
A
B
D
C
* C
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Steering Chemical Reactions A
A B
B
+
B
* C
C D
D
chemical reaction picture rich enough to use as template for other complex processes
A
D
+
C
policy intervention
A
D
A
D
A
D preferred outcome
+ B
C catalyst
B
C catalyst
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
B
C catalyst 14
Chemical Reactions: US Stock Market k
Symbol
1
BM
Basic Materials
CY
Consumer Services
3
EN
Oil & Gas
4
FN
Financials
5
HC
Healthcare
6
IN
Industrials
7
NC
Consumer Goods
8
TC
Technologies
9
TL
1.5 years Telecommunications
10
UT
Utilities
2
2 months
Economic Sector
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Zhang et al., Physica A 390, 2020 (2011)
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Chemical Reactions: US Stock Market
Cij
2001-2002
2004-2005
xi xi x j x j i j
xi x j i j
2008-2009
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Zhang et al., Physica A 390, 2020 (2011)
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Chemical Reactions: Japan Stock Market i
Symbol
Industry
i
Symbol
Industry
1
NAIR
Air Transport
2
NAUT
Symbol
Industry
13
NGLS
Glass & Ceramics
25
NRRL
Rail & Bus
Automobile
14
NISU
Insurance
26
NRUB
Rubber
3
NBKS
Banks
15
NLAN
Land Transport
27
NSEA
Sea Transport
4
NCHE
16
NMAC
Machinery
28
NSEC
Securities
5
NCMU
Communications
17
NMED
Pharmaceuticals
29
NSPB
Ship Building
6
NCON
Construction
18
NMIS
Other Manufacturing
30
NSTL
Iron & Steel
7
NELC
Electrical Power
19
NMNG
Mining
31
NSVC
Services
8
NELI
Electrical Equipment
20
NNFR
Nonferrous Metals
32
NTEQ
Transport Equipment
9
NFIN
Other Finance
21
NOIL
Oil
33
NTEX
Textile
10
NFIS
Fisheries
22
NPRC
Precision
34
NTIM
Pulp & Paper
11
NFOD
Foods
23
NREA
Real Estate
35
NTRA
Commerce
12
NGAS
Gas
24
NRET
Retail
36
NWHO
Warehouse
start
Chinese Chemicals Correction
i
start to end = 27 days
2 years 3 months
Subprime Crisis Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
end Cheong et al., Economics E-Journal, 2012
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Chemical Reactions: Japan Stock Market no signs of recovery
Subprime 3
Subprime 4
brief flight to quality prior to collapse of Lehman Brothers Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Cheong et al., Economics E-Journal, 2012
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Complex Network of Traders traders
stocks
price
time Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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The Brain Dynamics Template bipartite traderstock network
synchronization
sell
adaptation
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
propagation buy
complex network of traders
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Brain Dynamics: Singapore Stock Market 15 Sep 2008 8 Oct 2008 22 Oct 2008
✓ Growing and shrinking clusters ✗ Member exchanges between clusters Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Teh & Cheong, submitted
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Brain Dynamics: Singapore Stock Market
fusion
fission
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Teh & Cheong, submitted
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Brain Dynamics: Singapore Stock Market Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy
Crash 1
Crash 2
strong mixing!
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Teh & Cheong, submitted
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Brain Dynamics: Sumatra Earthquakes Fairly regular: climatic forcing?
Slow fusion of clusters
2007-2008 27 stations 30-sec time series 73 non-overlapping 5-day windows
Even slower fission of giant cluster = persistence of giant cluster earthquakes during fusions
12 Sep 2007 M-8.5 cluster took more than one year to relax Need longer study to establish relaxation time scale Rapid fusion of clusters
earthquakes during fissions
Slower fission of giant cluster Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Wang Xingjue, FYP (2012)
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James Peng Lung TAN Interdisciplinary Graduate School Nanyang Technological University
FROM COMPLEX DATA TO COMPLEXITY THEORY Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Challenges Posed by Complex Data hierarchy of variables descriptions at different scales
combinatorics innovations at different scales
self organization
interactions
microscopic variables wicked problems look so similar … Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
… yet every one is different! 26
Observing Sociopolitical Sentiments complexity lens
resolve into topics aggregate by topics
discussions = self reporting
society
social regime shift! Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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The Regime Shift Template Phenomenon Indicators vegetation Scheffer et al.,down Nature 461,Recovery 53 (2009)rate Critical slowing
fishery Critical fluctuations Power-law tails
Autocorrelation Spectral reddening Dominant eigenvalue Fisher information Increasing variance Spatial cross correlations Skewed distribution
Scheffer et al., Science 338, 344 (2012) neurology climate
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Theory of Regime Shifts new social regime
critical variance increasing autocorrelation flickering
critical slowing down
old social regime Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
transition 29
Slow Recovery Preceding Transition Dai etVeraart al., Science 1175 (2012) et al.,336, Nature 481, 357 (2012) • • • •
• • • •
lab cultures of budding yeast diluted daily by different factors single salt shock (30 g/l NaCl) on day 5 measure population density through day 10
cyanobacteria in controlled chemostat microcosm light intensity slowly increased until population collapse 10% dilution perturbation every 4-5 days measure recovery rate Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Online Discourse as Perturbations
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Online Discussion Forum Data
SB
SFSC SFCC
VRZ
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Crawlers written in Scrapy (Python)
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Relaxation Rates SB
high
Number of Threads
Daily Posts
2.5 good typical poor
2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0
2
4
6
8
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0
individual threads
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
R2
Day average over 1-year sliding time windows
meaning?
low Tan et al., in preparation
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Political vs Nonpolitical SFSC nonpolitical
SB
political
critical slowing down
critical slowing down
2011 GE!
SFCC
VRZ
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
critical slowing down
Tan et al., in preparation
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Text Co-Occurrence Analysis
1
race
retire 1 1
1
1
deserve
LKY 1 1 Singapore
work
die
1 1
1
1
income
Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Tan et al., in preparation
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Planar Maximally Filtered Graph Tumminello et al., PNAS 102, 10421-10426, 2005 work 1661 1745
pay
2344
buy 1705
1720
money
2991
1742
2013
give
home
2637
government
2018 1862
1928
pap 20281722
party
wp
1995
world 3925
1912
living
1651 1660 18381903
foreign
help
public
sg
national
singaporeans
chinese
1812 2430
2236
singapore 3670
2594 2261
vote
2385 1587
3093
2508
political
countries
2641 3410
2048 1597
malaysia
1691
2177
country 1946
police
1923
1622 1864 2137
1883
1644
not political family
singaporean
china local life
lee
opposition
Use political keyword to split threads into political and nonpolitical Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
Tan et al., in preparation
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Nature of Transition degree of ‘pap’ hub
all words
regime shift
words connected to ‘pap’
critical slowing down Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
reset by GE 2011 Tan et al., in preparation
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Conclusions • Optical Lens – Transforms light rays to form image at appropriate scale – Additional knowledge allows further processing of image
• Complexity Lens – Transforms data to fit existing knowledge templates – Can select resolution and scale
• Knowledge Templates – Chemical reaction, brain dynamics, regime shift – Distinguish between templates and models – Need more templates Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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Thank You! • Contact Information Siew Ann CHEONG Division of Physics and Applied Physics School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Nanyang Technological University 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371 Republic of Singapore Tel: +65-6513-8084 Fax: +65-6795-7981 Email:
[email protected] URL: http://www1.spms.ntu.edu.sg/~cheongsa/ Complexity Lens Workshop | 9-10 July 2015 | Singapore
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